Consumers are wrestling with the ever-changing definition of a “healthy diet” as concepts like portion control and moderation increasingly take the place of straightforward fat and calorie cutting.

“Almost every article you read lately talks about how everything has been downsized to individual servings and servings for two or four,” says Mark Erickson, vice president of sales and marketing at Creative Occasions, which is experiencing growing demand for its 7-oz. cakes. “Almost all of our cake is trans fat free. And we offer all natural cakes to customers who request them."

In a 2011 survey, market research provider Mintel, Chicago, asked consumers which attributes are important to them in ready-to-eat baked products. While 27 percent seek out single-serving options, 18 percent look for reduced-calorie packs and 17 percent look for 100-calorie options. This could indicate that today’s consumers are placing more emphasis on moderation than calorie counting, says Carla Dobre-Chastain, senior food analyst for Mintel Reports.

“While consumers are looking for smaller or individual portions, calorie counting may be less appealing and take away from the food enjoyment,” Dobre-Chastain says. “Additionally, many consumers may find that they are often still hungry and dissatisfied after eating 100-calorie versions, resulting in lack of repeat purchases or eating multiple packages at once, which defeats the purpose of worrying about calories.”

At Dawn Food Products, demand for smaller cakes is growing faster than for large cakes, says Hugh Brooks, senior business manager. “Pre-sliced products continue to grow quickly in terms of retailer shelf space,” he says, noting that portion is denoted by both small cakes and smaller individual serving sizes. “Sixty percent of U.S. households have two or fewer people–therefore larger cakes carry a ‘waste premium’ that can only be overcome when more people enter the household for entertaining occasions.”

Recession hangover

The recession has brought a shift in consumers’ perceptions about value. This has been exemplified by the significant growth of store brands. Private-label cake dollar sales once again topped national brands in the last year, up more than 4.3 percent in dollar sales and 2.6 percent in unit sales from this time last year.

And according to data from Mintel, sales growth of private label refrigerated cakes and pies outpaced the overall prepared cakes and pies category growth between 2008 and 2010 by $1 million, increasing by $33 million.

“Overall, whether the products are better-for-you or indulgent, shoppers appear to be increasingly making more choices based on the perceived value of the product, and not just the price at shelf,” Rzeszut says. “The role of private label in the category has really grown in the past few years, evolving from offering generic me-too versions of successful branded offerings to helping embody and reinforce the attributes and personality of a retailer’s brand itself.”

“Private label has had a twofold effect on the market by both driving down prices for products and therefore overall dollar sales, but private label also kept consumers in the market by offering a way to keep purchasing sweets even as their household budgets shrank,” Dobre-Chastain says.

As has been the case across the industry, the cake category hasn’t been immune to the ongoing swings in commodities prices. “Commodities are affecting us all,” Erickson says. “Our vendors are already on their second round of price increases this year.”

He doesn’t foresee this changing any time soon, either. “The consumer ultimately pays when costs are up. I’m not sure why there’s such hesitancy among operators to pass that on because the guy down the street is passing it on, too.”

TOP10 Cake Brands: Dollar and Unit Sales (millions)

Source: Infoscan Reviews, SymphonyIRI Group, Sept. 4, 2011

Refrigerated Brand Names	Dollar Sales	% Change Year Ago		Unit Sales	% Change Year Ago
Private Label	$519.6	h	4.3%	79.4	h	2.6%
Entenmanns	84.9	i	0.5	23.3	i	1.4
Café Valley	10.1	h	7.1	2.5	h	3.9
BC Bundt	9.5	i	33.0	2.2	i	39.4
Nobrand	8.6	i	114.9	2.9	h	123.8
Dutch Maid	8.5	i	1.3	0.8	i	2.5
Hill & Valley	6.9	i	1.7	1.3	h	4.2
The Fathers Table	6.7	h	244.9	1.7	h	416.5
Harlan Bakeries	6.3	h	111.7	2.0	h	112.5
The Original Cakerie	6.0	i	28.2	0.6	h	22.9
Best Brands	5.8	i	620.3	1.7	h	731.0

 

Fresh Bakery Products	52 weeks ended Sept. 4: $ Sales		% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Sept. 4: Unit Sales		% Change Prior Year
Bread	$6,505,369,000		h	0.1%	2,916,448,000		i	3.9%
Hamburger and Hot Dog Buns	1,302,152,000		h	0.6	761,169,400		i	2.5
All Other Rolls/Bun/Croissants	1,242,948,000		h	3.6	501,655,200		h	0.2
Cupcakes/Browniess	1,042,351,000		h	2.5	540,560,100		h	1.8
Cakes (excl Snack/Coffee)	800,924,400		h	4.6	147,149,600		h	4.0
Donuts	682,604,900		h	1.3	274,083,000		i	0.3
Pastry/Danish/Coffeecakes	649,862,000		h	1.0	261,714,400		i	3.2
Bagels/Bialys	599,298,300		h	6.0	200,345,600		h	0.4
English Muffins	504,773,600		i	0.9	207,804,500		i	4.5
Muffins	320,886,700		h	5.2	107,157,900		h	3.1
Pies (excl Snack Pies)	233,832,300		h	1.4	49,337,470		h	0.6