Gluten-free, low-carb, vegan, whole grain, all natural: Muffins are facing a glut of health-food buzzwords as consumers seek that elusive guiltless indulgence. And although they are far from shy in voicing their stated preference for healthier baked products, consumers’ actual purchasing decisions demonstrate that they aren’t so quick to change.

“There are a lot of things going on in the muffin category and none of them equate to a lot of volume,” says George Fregone, vice president of marketing and business development at Bake’n Joy Foods Inc., North Andover, Mass. Trends in recent years have ranged from low carb to sugar-, gluten- and fat-free, to vegan, all natural and whole grain, he says. “If you combined all those trends, you’re still only talking less than 10 percent of our total volume. Our full-fat muffin is always on top.”

Similarly, for Kenny Munic, owner and president of Chicago-based Little Miss Muffin, full-fat muffins still account for 75 percent of the company’s total sales. And while there is growing interest in gluten-free, vegan and clean-label offerings, consumers overwhelmingly prefer the
traditional varieties. “Blueberry muffins are far and away the most popular flavor, followed by chocolate and cinnamon,” Munic says. “We have a library of 75 to 80 varieties and carry up to 35 on any given day. But 80 percent of our sales consistently comes from 20 percent of our products.”

Though often associated with breakfast, muffin formulas often walk a fine line with cake, making them saleable as indulgent treats. “They’re a very versatile handheld food option for breakfast, but there’s also the option for a snack or dessert item,” Fregone says. “We created indulgence muffins, like our carrot cake muffin with cream cheese icing, that could take the place of dessert."

Store brands on top

One very marked change in consumer preferences in recent years is the shift toward store brands, which gained steam during the prolonged U.S. recession. Private-label muffin dollar sales once again topped national brands in the last year, up more than 7 percent from this time last year.

Mark Whalley, senior analyst in the consumer business unit for DataMonitor, says that consumers now think of store brands as almost identical their national brand counterparts in both price and quality.

“I think one of the strategies that’s worked for private label is the idea of tiering their offerings,” says Whalley. “In the past, people viewed private label as the cheaper version of branded products. What private label have sought to do is create products on certain tiers–value, mid-range tiers and premium ranges as well–and it’s pushed consumer expectations up.”

The recession helped contribute to private label’s popularity because it initially lured consumers with lower prices, Whalley says. Once they tasted the products and discovered they actually liked the flavor, they kept buying them.

Munic says club and supermarket clients are requesting more private-label products than ever. “Growing the Little Miss Muffin brand is something we always are working toward, but a lot of retailers want to promote their store brands.” He adds that this has trickled down from increased consumer demand for store brands. “I think what consumers are finding is that private label is made by reputable companies at lower price point.”

But brand recognition still has some power, Whalley says. “With the idea of private label becoming number one, the data indicates that it is potentially more difficult for national brands, but that doesn’t mean they can’t fight back,” he says. “It’s an idea of margins. Private label can manufacture muffins at a low price and this is appealing. But the more premium a brand can make a product and accentuate its authenticity, the more of an appeal it will have.”

Refrigerated Brand Names	Dollar Sales	% Change Year Ago		Unit Sales	% Change Year Ago
Private Label	$118.5	h	7.0 %	35.6	h	4.3%
Entenmanns Little Bites	47.9	h	6.4	16.0	i	1.0
Hostess	40.5	h	12.2	14.4	h	20.0
Little Debbie	23.9	i	18.3	9.6	i	20.9
Otis Spunkmeyer	10.7	i	15.2	4.8	i	10.1
Cafe Valley	9.5	h	2.8	3.7	i	7.5
Weight Watchers	7.0	i	26.3	2.2	i	23.6
Bimbo	5.1	h	2.8	3.5	h	3.5
Butterfly Bakery	4.2	h	35.3	.81	h	29.9
Pillsbury	4.0	h	33.2	1.1	i	25.6
Hostess Smartbakes	3.8			1.3

TOP10 Muffin Brands: Dollar and Unit Sales (millions)

Source: Infoscan Reviews, SymphonyIRI Group, Aug. 7 2011

Fresh Bakery Products	52 weeks ended Aug 7: $ Sales		% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Aug 7: Unit Sales		% Change Prior Year
Bread	$6,486,345,000		i	0.4%	2,923,643,000		i	3.8%
Cookies	3,720,132,000		h	1.3	1,467,329,000		h	1.2
Hamburger and Hot Dog Buns	1,298,832,000		h	0.1	764,111,700		i	2.3
Rolls/Bun/Croissants	1,241,135,000		h	4.4	503,439,500		h	1.5
Cupcakes/Brownies	1,037,165,000		h	1.8	541,021,400		h	1.8
Cakes (excl Snack/Coffee)	798,076,500		h	5.0	146,174,300		h	3.6
Donuts	680,847,500		h	1.0	274,700,900		h	0.0
Pastry/Danish/Coffeecakes	650,633,000		h	1.3	264,487,100		i	1.8
Bagels/Bialys	597,041,000		h	6.1	201,640,000		h	2.0
English Muffins	501,621,400		i	2.2	207,837,900		i	4.7
Muffins	319,692,700		h	5.0	106,920,400		h	2.7
Pies (excl Snack Pies)	234,511,600		h	2.2	49,710,710		h	1.9

 

Refrigerated Bakery Products	52 weeks ended Aug 7: $ Sales		% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Aug 7: Unit Sales		% Change Prior Year
Biscuit Dough	$376,186,300		h	0.0%	283,095,000		i	1.9%
Cookie/Brownie Dough	346,638,200		i	4.8	123,324,000		i	4.9
Dough (Pastry/Dumpling)	311,893,200		h	1.9	133,094,300		h	2.8
Dough (Bread/Roll/Bun)	277,977,200		h	7.24	133,178,800		h	7.1
Cheesecakes	122,911,000		h	8.8	18,756,550		h	21.7
Cakes (excl Snack/Coffee)	94,506,580		h	8.7	11,319,520		h	6.3
Bagels/Bialys	60,314,710		h	1.9	37,535,750		h	2.1
English Muffins	37,198,350		h	0.7	17,543,190		i	3.1
Snack Cakes/Donuts	36,288,740		h	536.6	13,473,770		h	580.8
Pies (excl Snack Pies)	23,623,270		i	8.3	4,384,515		i	2.9
Pastry/Danish/Coffeecakes	6,371,463		i	17.0	1,568,907		i	31.0
Bread	3,524,311		h	4.7	1,158,727		h	5.8
Dinner/Sandwich Rolls/Croissants	879,307		h	9.2	355,027		h	8.4
Muffins	35,750		i	27.2	6,807		i	29.9

 

Frozen BakeryProducts	52 weeks ended Aug 7: $ Sales		% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Aug 7: Unit Sales		% Change Prior Year
Fresh Baked Bread/Rolls/Biscuits	$521,025,000		h	3.7%	196,255,900		h	2.5%
Pies	336,440,600		h	1.2	89,137,460		h	18.0
Sweet Goods (excl Cheesecakes)	194,622,800		i	3.3	47,547,090		i	5.4
Bread/Rolls/Pastry Doughs	184,975,800		h	1.01	57,784,680		h	0.7
Pie/Pastry Shells	131,787,200		i	0.2	49,296,480		i	3.2
Cheesecakes	64,106,000		i	2.1	10,719,050		i	7.1
Bagels	43,160,240		i	24.3	22,303,700		i	23.0
Muffins	32,202,400		i	7.7	7,384,795		i	10.4
Cookie Dough	4,222,692		h	43.4	889,982		h	58.8
Cookies	384,684		h	47.0	83,701		h	30.9