While some food manufacturers clamor to be the first to market cutting-edge flavor concepts, clever bakers are also keeping their eyes on cultural phenomena for cues on where to direct research and development. Flavor assimilation, for instance, is a good place to look for “new” flavor concepts. Products that were edgy and exotic only a few years ago are being assimilated into the American palate.

“Mango has made the transition from ethnic to mainstream flavor. It is not exotic anymore; in fact, it is a household name,” says Lynn Dornblaser, director, CPG trend insight, Mintel Research, Chicago. “You occasionally see mango in baked products, especially in Danish pastry and other sweetgoods, but I wonder if bakers are missing the boat on the fact that mango is now part of the mainstream.”

Cardamom is another flavor that has become common in the United States, and it offers a lot of opportunity for bakery products. “This is a versatile flavor and can be found in several different ethnic cuisines, but because it can be sweet or savory, that positions it to go far,” Dornblaser says. “It's a unique flavor, but it is easy to get used to.”

Some flavor trends are newer and haven't yet experienced assimilation. Floral flavor profiles, for instance, are still gaining momentum. Lavender was the first of the florals to have an impact in baking, and now rose and rosewater are doing the same. Bakers primarily pair rosewater flavor with dark chocolate products, especially brownies. “Last year's major floral trend was lavender, and it was paired with chocolate, too,” Dornblaser says. “It was a very feminine flavor pairing that took some getting used to, but it was successful. Rose could be the next lavender.” Another floral that bakers should keep their eyes on is hibiscus. It is almost exclusively used in Asian or Caribbean food preparation, but as other florals are included in baking applications, the idea of flowers as food flavor becomes increasingly conventiaonal. Hibiscus might be three to four years away from being regarded as mainstream, however.

“At this point, bakers have a couple of opportunities with the floral flavor combinations. One opportunity could be to use floral flavor combinations to convey a more premium positioning for a product,” says Emil Shemer, director of food solutions, Sensient Flavors LLC, Indianapolis. “Another opportunity could be to use a hint of a floral flavor profile to create a more signature flavor profile of a bakery product.”

It has been repeated ad nauseam, but the economy-spawned nostalgic flavor trend is still going strong. The trend refers to both flavor and form, as a good portion of the nostalgic reaction to food is visual. But bakery is well positioned to capitalize on this trend, perhaps more so than any other food category. The economy won't recover overnight, so comfort food will remain the most important flavor trend affecting bakery in 2010.

Sensient Flavors' Top 10 flavor predictions for 2010:

• Black garlic: Popular in Asian cuisine, black garlic is a type of fermented garlic that offers a sweet, syrupy flavor.
• Caja: Native to Brazil, the caja fruit offers a tropical citrus profile and has a high carotenoid content.
• Corbezzolo honey: Native to Sardinia, corbezzolo honey is a bitter honey from corbezzolo (strawberry) bushes.
• Elderflower: Found throughout warmer parts of Europe and North America, elderflower offers a light, sweet flavor.
• Japanese Seven Spice: Also knows as Shichimi Togarashi, Japanese Seven Spice offers both heat and flavor with a variety of notes, including orange peel, cayenne and ginger.
• Kumquat: Originating in China, kumquats offer a variety of flavors, from sweet to sour to salty.
• Maple: Produced from the sap of the maple tree, maple offers a sweet and comforting flavor to most foods that feature it.
• Papalo: Widely used in Mexican cooking, papalo has a pungent and bold flavor.
• Ras el hanout: Used in Middle East and North Africa, ras el hanout is considered the best spice blend. It typically includes a variety of Indian spices, cardamom and saffron.
• Varietal cinnamon: From Vietnamese to Indonesian to Ceylon to Chinese, varietal cinnamons offer subtly different blends of sweet and spicy cinnamon flavors.