January may have ushered in a new decade, but, unfortunately, it didn't bring along a new economy. While things aren't as bleak as they were one year ago, customers are still watching their expenditures carefully and looking to get the most bang for their pastry, Danish and coffeecake buck.

“We are seeing an interest in more upscale, European-style laminated pastries, such as croissants and Danish,” says Frankie Whitman, vice president of marketing, Full Bloom Baking Co., Newark, Calif. “Customers want to upgrade but are still stressing value. Customers are very concerned about dollars right now.” National sales figures from the year ending Nov. 29, 2009, confirm this, with private label sales for the pastry, Danish and coffeecake segment leading the pack and boasting a nearly 2 percent increase from the previous year.

Accompanying a greater emphasis on value is a demand for more nutritionally beneficial products. Scott Kolinksi, general manager for Lantmannen Unibake USA, Lisle, Ill., predicts this demand will increase through the year. “Whole grain will continue to grow along with other more nutritious ingredients, and there will be a continued push for all-natural products.”

Whether customers will pay a higher price for more healthful items remains to be seen, although Whitman has spotted signs that customers can be persuaded. “When it comes to actually putting their money where their mouth is, often the healthier options get pushed aside,” she explains. “That said, we are getting excellent reception to some good-for-you items we have introduced this year. Consumers seem to appreciate the healthy, satiating items.”

Smaller servings and mini sizes also are rising in popularity as people strive to moderate their eating habits. Kolinksi and Whitman have both seen increased interest in portion control. “There seems to be a demand for smaller portions with better flavor,” Kolinski says. “[Lantmannen Unibake is] well positioned for that. From a Danish pastry standpoint, our portions are smaller than the traditional American-style Danish.”

Even though customers remain cautious, the good news is they appear to be willing to spend when they perceive greater value, increased nutritional benefits or controlled portions in their pastry, Danish and coffeecake purchases.

TOP10 Brands: Dollar and Unit Sales (millions)

Pastry, Danish, Coffeecake Brand Names	Dollar Sales	% Change Year Ago		Unit Sales	% Change Year Ago
Private Label	$157.0	↑	1.7%	50.4	↓	2.4%
Entenmann's	121.6	↓	4.4	29.5	↓	5.4
Little Debbie	81.3	↓	3.7	55.7	↓	16.8
Svenhards	27.2	↓	6.8	6.1	↓	7.8
James Skinner	19.0	↑	2.9	5.2	ͽ	0.0
Hostess	18.6	↑	19.1	9.4	↑	26.2
Cloverhill	17.4	↑	1.9	22.0	↓	6.4
Homestyle Two Bite	16.4	↓	18.1	4.1	↓	19.9
Blue Bird	12.2	↑	14.5	16.1	↑	12.4
Drake	11.8	↑	1.9	4.0	↑	11.7

Source: Infoscan Reviews, Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), Nov. 29, 2009

Fresh Bakery Products	52 weeks ended Nov. 29: $ Sales	% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Nov. 29 Unit Sales	% Change Prior Year
Bread	$6,588,043,600	↓	6.2%	3,021,976,400	↓	5.5%
Crackers	3,732,522,000	↑	1.9	1,444,042,000	↓	1.1
Cookies	3,647,088,000	↑	0.7	1,436,963,000	↓	3.0
Rolls/Buns/Croissants	1,156,545,000	↑	12.3	471,410,900	↑	8.2
Cupcakes/Brownies	1,000,882,000	↑	7.0	521,910,400	↑	2.7
Cakes (excl Snack/Coffee)	711,736,600	↑	2.5	136,417,500	↑	2.2
Donuts	665,754,800	↑	5.4	262,633,600	↑	5.4
Pastry/Danish/Coffeecakes	648,175,700	↓	1.8	266,369,600	↓	5.9
Bagels/Bialys	553,541,000	↑	3.1	186,372,300	↑	4.3
English Muffins	540,130,900	↓	1.0	221,467,400	↑	1.0
Muffins	313,238,400	↓	2.5	105,697,400	↓	1.1
Pies (excl. snack pies)	217,766,600	↑	4.7	46,843,130	↑	6.6

Refrigerated Bakery Products	52 weeks ended Nov. 29: $ Sales	% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Nov. 29 Unit Sales	% Change Prior Year
Biscuit Dough	$382,470,200	↑	4.1%	288,147,100	↓	1.2
Cookie/Brownie Dough	380,519,500	↓	1.0	132,396,200	↓	1.3
Pastry/Dumpling Dough	317,055,600	↑	1.1	132,057,600	↓	1.7
Bread/Rolls/Pastry Dough	268,561,200	↑	1.2	126,441,700	↓	1.7
Cheesecakes	104,723,900	↓	2.4	13,711,590	↓	1.3
Cakes (excl Snack/Coffee)	80,181,540	↑	8.9	10,861,860	↑	15.1
Bagels/Bialys	61,939,420	↑	6.9	38,086,480	↓	2.0
English Muffins	39,284,360	↑	5.0	19,718,800	↑	0.5
Pies (excl Snack Pies)	21,655,630	↓	3.0	3,807,281	↓	6.5
Pastry/Danish/Coffeecakes	7,733,992	↑	10.0	2,017,665	↑	11.0
Snack Cakes/Donuts	5,476,231	↑	12.8	1,280,576	↑	20.0
Bread	3,678,693	↓	4.9	1,221,324	↓	8.2
Dinner/Sandwich Rolls/Croissants	815,432	↓	44.2	324,514	↓	52.1
Muffin	61,515	↓	57.6	11,441	↓	62.4

Frozen BakeryProducts	52 weeks ended Nov. 29: $ Sales	% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Nov. 29: Unit Sales	% Change Prior Year
Fresh BakedBread/Rolls/Biscuits	$546,829,200	↑	1.0%	204,267,900	↓	3.0%
Pies	334,586,200	↑	2.1	73,045,140	↓	9.8
Sweetgoods (excl Cheesecakes)	213,949,600	↑	2.1	54,905,540	↓	2.0
Bread/Rolls/Pastry Dough	134,106,700	↑	7.6	42,072,570	↓	2.4
Pies/Pastry Shells	129,945,800	↑	9.2	50,951,860	↑	1.1
Cheesecakes	69,533,060	↑	4.6	12,257,740	↑	6.1
Bagels	66,366,050	↑	0.6	34,370,540	↓	10.0
Muffins	26,446,920	↑	15.4	7,344,690	↓	1.4
Cookie Dough	5,802,868	↑	10.3	1,434,847	↑	6.4
Cookies	309,530	↓	109.7	79,218	↓	76.3

Source: Infoscan Reviews, Information Resources, Inc. (IRI)