Changing perceptions also will affect where consumers spend their food dollars. The definition of fast food has expanded beyond the hamburger and chicken chains to include the fast casual segment, such as bakery cafés, which serve food quickly but emphasize product flavor and quality. Menus are moving away from cost-savings that were so important last year and are instead incorporating high-quality ingredients, according to Mintel. “In 2010, we expect menus to go back to the basic roots of good food and drink,” says Maria Caranfia, registered dietician and senior analyst for Mintel Menu Insights.

Emergence of social networking

The proliferation of smartphones and other advances in technology have made it easier for consumers to stay tuned in and in touch. They are looking to make connections and are turning to social networking sites to do it. And, they are using these sites as more than a place to find “friends.” Consumers are looking for real information from and real interaction with companies.

“It isn't enough to put up a Facebook page; you have to attach it to specific targets,” Klecko says. “You have to have a well thought-out campaign.”

One of the biggest benefits to bakers is the ability to engage in “real” time with customers. “Because of our ‘now’ society, having the ability to respond virtually immediately with information can make the difference in booking a sale,” Seppi says.

The sites also provide a platform for bakers to engage consumers in a dialogue on making baked products part of a healthful and balanced lifestyle, MacKie says. “Frankly, much of the misinformation surrounding grains and healthy lifestyles has been spread via the Internet. The social networking venues provide not only the bakers, but the rest of the food industry, a platform to dispel those myths and provide accurate, scientifically based information directly to consumers.”

Changing regulations

Health care reform, immigration, food safety, trans fat bans, calorie count transparency—the list of regulations from federal, state and local governments that affect the baking industry seem almost endless.

Some policies, such as food safety and health care reform, will likely be finalized this year, MacKie says. Legislation to overhaul the nation's food safety system has passed the House of Representatives and is now being considered in the Senate.

Nutrition and obesity policy will be given top priority in 2010, MacKie adds. (First Lady Michelle Obama has already announced that confronting childhood obesity will be her focus this year.) National nutrition guidelines are being reviewed, and substantial issues, such as added sugar, high fructose corn syrup, sodium and the balance of whole and enriched grains, are under discussion.

The forecast for 2010: cloudy. Until people are back to work, consumer spending will remain well below pre-recession levels. Offering a quality product at a reasonable price will help bakers weather the uncertain climate.